I received a fascinating e-mail this morning from Susan MacTavish Best of Best Public Relations. According to a study published by Lulu.com (a self-publishing site), the life-expectancy of a bestselling novel has been cut in half in the last decade.
The study looked at the average number of weeks that a new No. 1 bestseller stayed on top of the hardback fiction section of the New York Times Bestseller List. Here are the results by decade:
| Decade | Average Number of Weeks to Stay on the No. 1 Spot |
| 1960s | 21.7 weeks |
| 1970s | 13.9 weeks |
| 1980s | 7.2 weeks |
| 1990s | 5.5 weeks |
| 2000s (so far) | 3.0 weeks |
While this is bad news for established authors, it is potentially good news for authors hoping to hit the No. 1 spot. According to the same study, the number of novels to reach No. 1 per year, in each of the same decades was as follows:
| Decade | Average Number of Novels To Hit the No. 1 Spot Per Year |
| 1960s | 2.8 titles |
| 1970s | 4.4 titles |
| 1980s | 7.6 titles |
| 1990s | 10.0 titles |
| 2000s (so far) | 18.2 titles |
According to recent statistics from R.R. Bowker, U.S. publishers released 113,589 new titles in 1995. In 2005, publishers cranked out 172,000 new titles—a 51.4% increase. Bottom line: more titles are competing for the same number of available slots.
Fortunately, title output dropped by 9% from 2004 to 2005. But I don’t think this is enough to reverse the trend. “The genie is out of the bottle.” Too many media options are competing for consumers’ discretionary time. As a result, their attention span is decreasing. Somehow we have to factor this into our strategic planning. The world is changing rapidly!
Technorati Tags: bestsellers, books, publishing
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Very very interesting. How do you as a company respond to this?
That’s fascinating. I like that you gave a positive spin on it.