A few days ago, I watched a video demo of the “SI Tablet” (see video below), a new eBook device developed by Time, Inc. and The Wonderfactory. It demonstrates how a touch screen, portability, and the convergence of text, audio, and video can create unprecedented opportunities for content providers. Frankly, it is the most compelling media device I have seen yet.
According to the video, Time will launch this device in 2010. As a result, the future is arriving faster than most of us thought—or at least I thought. With the advent of the Apple tablet computer at hand, the eBook space is going to heat up significantly this next year.
After watching the video several times, I have come to a few tentative conclusions about the future of book publishing. Don’t hold me to this. I may change my mind next month. But for now at least, here is what I see as I peer into the future:
- The line between newspapers, magazines, and books is about to become blurred. In the old world of analog (non-digital) publishing, several things differentiated these media from one another:
- The delivery format—newsprint, glossy paper, or bound books
- The length of time it took to go from concept to market—daily, weekly, monthly, or several months
- The number of content contributors involved—one author (or two) or many writers
- The way the contributors were compensated—royalties, staff salaries, or work-made-for-hire arrangements
- The financial model—advertising, subscription, or outright purchase
The SI Tablet and other devices like it will create a new kind of multimedia content that is shaped more by the capabilities of the device and the convergence of technologies than the traditional formats.
- Publishers will need to envision multimedia content from the beginning. Once consumers get used to this kind of rich media, they will not be content to read text alone. They certainly won’t pay a premium price for it. They will expect hyperlinks, audio, video, and other multimedia bells and whistles. As a result, content providers will need to envision these elements at the ideation stage, rather than adding them as an afterthought. In this sense, magazine publishers and web content developers will have an advantage. They are already doing this.
- Consumer expectations are going to skyrocket. Yes, some die-hard book fans will hang on until the bitter end. But the tastes of the masses are going to shift. I am old enough to remember the transition from black and white television to color. Once it happened, there was no going back. Everyone wanted a color TV. The same thing happened with stereo music, surround sound, and every other media innovation. It is going to get more and more challenging to wow the customer.
- The cost of producing digital books will get more expensive. If all publishers are doing is porting text-based content from an analog format to a digital one, they really haven’t added much value other than convenience and portability. In fact, they have arguably reduced their costs, because they don’t have to manufacture or distribute a physical product. But this is not where it’s going to stay. To stay competitive, publishers will need to add audio, video, and other design elements that are going to add to the production cost.
- Digital content creation and distribution will become our primary focus. Physical books will become an afterthought. I don’t know when the tipping point will occur, but I believe it will happen in the next few years. You can’t create a media rich experience like the SI Tablet is capable of delivering without thinking about content in an entirely different way. Some people will always want printed books, just as some people enjoy candles today. But we will eventually think of these as “souvenirs” (to quote Tim O’Reilly) or decorative artifacts for our home or office. Most people will consume content digitally.
- People will be reading more than ever. This is the really good news, I think. These new technologies promise to create reading experiences (if we can call them that) that are more sensual, more imaginative, and more compelling than simple text alone can provide. I believe people are already reading more than ever. They are simply consuming their information in different ways. This will only accelerate as the devices become more sophisticated. As a result, I expect to see reading increase in the future.
If you prefer business-as-usual, these are scary times. The media landscape is changing dramatically. It’s happened to music, then newspapers and magazines, and now even television and film. To quote Jeff Bezos, “The book publishing industry is perhaps the last bastion of analog technology.” But it’s even happening here.
But I have honestly never been more excited about the future of publishing than I am right now. There will be winners and losers, but these are exciting times. We have unprecedented opportunities as publishers to deliver content that connects with more readers in more powerful ways than ever before. I can’t wait to see what 2010 brings.
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Hi Mike, Thanks for the heads up video and your excellent predictions for the future of book publishing. As a published genre author and electronic publisher, I say bring it on. Why just read text when you can have a multimedia experience? It's something I've experimented with in a free online thriller at http://www.UnnaturalStates.com. Just don't call it a book; it's a Quillr.
That's a clever title. Great!
It definitely looks like the dawning of a new age…as a photographer I witnessed the turning from film to digital over ONE Christmas season. I'm still dealing with the adjusting to the changes but overall the switch has helped me more than hindered.
The important thing as writers is to nurture our imaginations.
I'm both excited and frightened of the new changes coming to the publishing industry, but I'm mostly hopeful. My imagination is going wild with ideas for both my nonfiction and fiction writing.
That said…I believe the coming change will not be as abrupt or complete as it was for the film-to-digital change. Straight text will still be a needed commodity, even if we add all the bells and whistles to it.
As a reader, I still like to read a book first, listen to it on tape second, and then watch the movie. Electronic book. Fine. I can adjust. But give me the option of straight text along with the choice of all the bells and whistles.
Yep. I think the straight text should be an option, too. The good news is that should be easy technically.
I might be wrong, but I doubt that I'll ever buy one of these.
Devices like this do some things well, but they're mostly for technophiles not bibliophiles. Sure you can carry hundreds of books and/or magazines on an electronic device. That's great. But who wants to curl up by the fireplace with an electronic device? These devices (which will become obsolete every year or two…the Kindle is already in its third release) will probably never completely replace ink and paper.
Kindle is actually in its second release. Kindle owners are Amazon's heaviest book buyers. The experience is so easy. All you have to do is think of the book or hear one recommended and you can download it in a few seconds.
I don't expect books to ever disappear altogether. Just like we still have candles. ;-)
I'm still not sure if that's the case and if 2010 will bring so much change… however due to the fact that the content is "in the cloud" this could really start happening…
I've read my last books on my iPhone and now I also started purchasing audio-books… there will be lots of new ways of digesting content and it'll be really exciting to see what the consumers will eventually choose as their "dominant" way of "reading"… or there will be no dominant way? Just a set of really powerful alternatives?
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Michael, great to see someone "get it" from the "hard copy" world. What Time is working on is HUGE. Makes me excited to see what Apple has in store. You have to think it is every bit of good as that.
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As a rabid reader (yes I purposely used rabid rather than avid) :), I love anything that will put more books into my hands. I think of some obscure titles I have tried to locate of late and wonder if this will eventually make those easier, and less costly, to obtain.
Like David, I am an old soul who will always have a sentimental attachment to the feel, the smell, the crinkle of pages. I will always want beautiful books lying about the house seducing me to stop and linger for a bit. But the possibility of reading about a great artwork, an exotic location, or a marvelous musical composition, then clicking through a link to visit said work or locale is immensely appealing to me.
I just keep thinking of the trees. All those trees that won't need to be cut down to make paper.
I too love to hold a real book and turn its pages but I'm willing to sacrifice that experience to help the planet.
This shift reminds me of microwave ovens when they first came out. That technology was so new it changed everything. It took a few years though and even now you'll still find the occasional person who doesn't have one. Notice how no one takes microwave cooking classes anymore? It's ingrained into our culture now.
I still think books will be around but this technology is not going to go away.
I like it, but still anticipating the Apple Tablet. The latest rumor is what – March maybe? I like what you said on another post about the preferred sizing, something between the size of the iPhone and the kindle. I've been saying the same, and I bet many others feel the same.
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Very interesting ongoing discussion here. Frankly, I feel behind the curve. Is one reader better than another – if so, which one and why?
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Michael:
It looks like a big iPhone which is what a larger iPhone could easily do today!
So – the big question is – when is Apple going to make the iTablet or iScreen that looks like this demo ? If Apple doesn't do it….somebody else will and it could be a popular NetBook combined with a reader on steroids !
Kindle, Nook, or SI Tablet …
I am an avid reader. I read about 5 books a week, usually from cover to cover.
I am dual-careered. In psychotherapy, my work evolves with advances in brain research and scientific books are critical. I am also a User Experience (UX) designer and am always canvassing the digital information architecture of websites, software, mobile applications, and gadgets to watch human factor trends. (I do read an occasional inspirational book for my own nourishment, hence my admiration of publishers like Thomas Nelson and Zondervan.)
Books going digital is a great delight! I am hoping a digital reader will aid in keeping my skillsets cutting edge but I'm not sure how I feel about a digital reader and the more "limbic", or emotional reading I do.
I will be watching early 2010 to see which reader emerges out front. I will also read with interest the customer ratings. The prettier graphic user interface doesn't always get the best return-on-investment. Which early design features are going to separate the leading reader from the pack? Will there be a difference in user psychological demographics and will publishers need a multi-neural strategy? Will the leading digital reader be passive … or will it be 'engaging'?
Ahh … the possibilities!
Simple wireframe diagrams and fancy html + css won't cut it. The key will be to see if Thomas Nelson can transition out of static digital design to more interactive (engaging) book design! You will have to add superstar digital designers to your list of superstar authors!
I know you can do it! Now, ready, set … go!
As a member of a library community it seems there is no place for this technology as it is very anti-sharing. I would love to see books, esp non-fiction/reference and magazines available in digital. we could have so many more available for people to browse. we could keep the older issues to refer back to and enjoy. Perhaps the cloud computing community will enable this.
I hope the love for holding a physical book in your hand never dies. It's an experience that can never be replaced by technology. Books don't have batteries run out, they smell amazing, and they're wonderful to look at as they fill up your shelves and represent the different adventures you have gone on.
As great as technology is is, books are a tradition that should be carried on through out time. They have been our "ultimate discourse" for centuries and what honor would we be doing them by replacing them with plastic and chips?
You could replace "book" with candle and make the same argument.
I don't think books will ever completely go away for the same reason that candles will never go completely away. However, I do believe that physical books will be largely replaced by digital ones—probably in the next few years.
I have a problem with Number 6, People will be reading more than ever.
It doesn't matter how much people read, what matters is how much people comprehend what has been written. Putting bells and whistles on the words won't make you more readily grasp the concepts; if anything, it could distract your concentration.
I see a difference between communication tools and educational content. I have IMs, texts, and emails blasting away at me all day long that I have to read. This reading falls under communication. I see little to no intellectual value in all this reading. Give me a book – that doesn't need batteries – and a quiet place and I can learn something.
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Very interesting
Great insight, thanks!
I kinda sorta agree. Yes, media consumption habits are changing. But the industry isn't "dead". It is evolving to meet customers needs. (Or at least it should be.)
Let's also remember that no matter how many Kindles Amazon tells us that they've sold, these technologies are still novelties for the majority of the reading public. When faced with a $300+ purchase (device + content) or a $14.95 purchase (paper + content), many people are still choosing the cheapest, most familiar technology, i.e. bound pages.
The biggest challenge for media will be how to develop a business model that supports the need of both digital and paper customers. As long as you've got customers in both camps, you can't abandon either out right. Because paper isn't going anywhere soon, and digital is clearly here to stay.
Just to be clear: I didn't say the industry is dead. I said that book publishing as we know it is near death.
Also, Amazon claims that in November two-third to one-half of their book sales were Kindle versions. This number shocked me and indicates that we are well past the early adopter phase.
Thanks for commenting.
I would think more content will be consumed because it will be easier to touch. I will be able to buy a book from my phone/tablet and can do so on impulse. I wont have the time to talk myself out of it on the way to the bookstore. Marketing becomes more important than ever.
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This is a very interesting video but hardly the first on this subject. I remember a video on the future newspaper produced by Atex in the 1980s that showed many similar concepts. Time were a big Atex customer and obviously got many of there ideas back then. It is also interesting to put what was shown into context. What we are seeing is not really an e-Reader. This is another version of the Tablet PC that Microsoft introduced a few years back. It will have a limited battery life because it is driving a largish conventional LED screen. We will not see color on e-Readers using low power consumption screens for probably three years. This Time device will also be relatively heavy compared with Kindle like devices. The video shows what is possible but unfortunately not what will be deliverable in a practical format for some time. The Apple Tablet will almost certainly be similar with an LED color screen. The real future will be when E-Ink or Plastic Logic bring color screens to market. Probably the first implementation of the Time tablet will be as software for a PC.
While I agree that there are drastic changes on the horizon, I don't think they'll be here as soon as some people think.
When the compact disc was introduced in the late eighties people swore that vinyl was dead. To a degree this was true, but the LP died a very slow death and still enjoys popularity among some purists who enjoy the imperfections associated with it.
I can't say that I agree with your comparison of "black & white to color" because that was an improvement to an existing medium, not a completely new technology.
Naturally it is inevitable that digital technology will completely replace analog technology but in my opinion it will not be complete for many years. Probably about the same amount of time it takes for the analog generation to become a non-factor.
Even when the automobile was invented the horse and carriage hung on until the die-hards…died off.
This is an interesting perspective and I agree with almost all of it. Back in the day when Flash came along, everyone thought the Internet and general media would change. Everyone would use Flash or those types of delivery mechanisms to deliver Rich Content. Many websites used Flash to develop Rich Content sites and when the web crawlers had difficulty decoding the content developers pushed things in a different direction. Today Flash is used everywhere but there are not many pure Flash sites.
I’ve always wondered about the movie industry and how they seem to consistently change the story line. Take Lord of the Rings. The trilogy is pretty much in sync with the books, but there is a depth that the movies omitted. Perhaps it’s the time and expense to create a movie that follows the book or that instead of three movies there would be twelve.
Here is the conflict in my thinking. When you read a book, albeit the old fashion way or a new reader device, you have the ability to visualize that story using your own creativity. You gain more than just reading the story, but can experience it. Seems to me that being guided so to speak by the visual, audio and animated story tellers we will lose a major reason why we read.
The new media presentation direction we are headed reminds me of when we were teaching the kids to read. We had all the pretty artist renderings of what their interpretation of the story was and the child’s imagination was left out. When we transitioned to books without pictures every child didn’t want to read those books because there were no pictures. I have written children’s stories for the children and grandchildren in my life. None of them have pictures, mainly because I cannot draw, but primarily because I want them to create in their mind what that story looks like.
I guess my question is, are now going to create the images of Huckleberry Finn and every other great book written or to be written and leave behind the imagination of our youth, just to accommodate new technology?
This is a very impressive product. Yes, it's possible to see changes in publishing, but I"m not sure I agree with everything you mention.
For book readers, I don't see the interactive capability as all that exciting. When I read, I dont' want anything interrupting me. It's rare that I'll ever put a book down so I can go look up more "interactive" activities. Book reading is a solitary thing, and I can't see novel publishers hiring actors to act out the scenes, so I'm really not seeing much benefit there. Plus, the view screen is exceptionally bright – needed for magazines, perhaps, but a detriment to the power reader. It's why the e-ink is so popular on e-readers. I Got enough of a headache watching James Cameron's new movie. I don't want to get one when I read. Now if the new SI has the ability to turn on or off the E-ink, now THAT would make this exciting to the power reader. Turn it on for ebooks, turn it off for the magazines. But it would have to be a simple interface/touch to do that, otherwise, it won't work. Or, perhaps an auto sensor inside, if there's no interactive content, to switch to e-ink, and vice versa.
The ability to have interactive content for mags and newspapers is great. But… I'm not a mag/newspaper reader. Would I become one with this? Maybe. Just maybe. The look from the video is pretty awesome. The interface appears to be simple enough, though I wonder about smeared touch screens, etc. (can you tell I'm not a touch screen person?)
I'm curious as to the power requirements, and the cost. Both of those could make or break this for now. In the future perhaps,
I am constantly amazed by your "visionary" ability. This is fascinating stuff. I think that it is the end of the glory days of publishing in the traditional book format, but it is a much needed "pruning." There is so much "not great" out there.
People will still buy great books, probably mostly fiction. A great book is still comforting, still "feels" good to put on a home shelf, is still a good conversation piece, still a great gift, still completely portable, still unable to be replaced by flashy, new formats.
I don't like bookstores anymore because I get lost in all the hype. I'm ready for GREAT again. Let the hype be part of the new format. Give me fewer books and a publishing company with content integrity. For the love of books, I will buy what they are selling all day long!
I am constantly amazed by your "visionary" ability. This is fascinating stuff. I think that it is the end of the glory days of publishing in the traditional book format, but it is a much needed "pruning." There is so much "not great" out there.
So…how is Nelson positioning itself with regards to these other electronic media content providers? How can authors/writers get in on these inter media relationships of the future?
Hi Michael, I love your analysis. I have been in educational publishing for most of my career and decided to pursue a different path a couple of years ago . I was in marketing and knew that the big educational publishers would crash and burn if: 1) they did not change the company infrastructure to meet the needs of today's market and students, 2) they did not create print and digital materials simultaneously to deliver to customers, and 3) hardware was not developed that would provide an accessible and intuitive platform for teachers to deliver digital content to their students.(like iPhone- very non-threatening and no need for classes to learn how to use) Well… it is happening, huh? Let's hope that the big educational companies figure out how to deliver what teachers and students want and need. Interesting times and so many exciting opportunities! Cindy
Great post.
I am one of those printed word die-hards, although I write online. Recently, I have reviewed books online, and I really missed the feeling of actual pages in my hands.
Never fear. I will eventually come around. (I remember, during my early career as a book editor for a Christian publisher, learning to edit on a computer. I addressed this development with a considerable amount of kicking and screaming – at least, figuratively speaking.)
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I love how when during the demo, at the 2:36 mark, the 'Game Alert' pops up on the screen with 'Dodgers' spelled 'Dogers'… SI misspells Los Angeles' team name? And I'm first to catch it? Ha… How did this get by?
Thomas…man I agree with you wholeheartedly. I am in the music media industry. I am very excited at the new direction content is going. I do agree it is kinda sad that physical mediums will soon be a mere thought of nostalgia, but the idea of being able to read an article on the new 2012 Ford Fusion (arbitrary ex.) and be able to look at every aspect of the car or video of how they designed, on some media device fascinates me. The only thing I do not agree with you own is the fact that users will not be willing to pay a premium…I kind of look at this new paradigm shift as public broadcast—> network cable television…People are willing to pay for things they think are of value and if the packaging is put together I believe that users would not mind pay X amount of dollars for unlimited content or bonus features Great article!!!
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I love the idea of multimedia "books." It makes sense, instead of just a text-based item, to include an audio of the writer reading part of the book or a video interview of how he/she came to the write the book. I've begun to feel that many books–fiction and non-fiction both–could be a lot shorter. Including multimedia elements is great way to add value even if the text portion itself becomes shorter. Even better would be to include a space for comments to create an ongoing discussion between author and reader.
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Need a Thomas Nelson selection of coverz for my Nook! -Elizabeth
Ideas: business, whimsical, inspirational
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Before you give up on books all together grab one called "Fahrenheit 451" – it will shed a whole new light on burning the pages.
Yep, these are all issues that must be addressed.
WOW! WHAT AWESOME TECHNOLOGY! WAY COOL!