Every month, I review a set of market share reports prepared by one of our internal analysts. While the data behind these reports are not perfect, I do believe they represent the best view of the book publishing market currently available. As a result, even though it’s been almost two years since I posted a high-level summary of the data, I thought it would provide you with some insight into our industry.
Keep in mind that these lists are based on revenues for the twelve months ending December 31, 2009. We created these lists from a proprietary database we have developed at Thomas Nelson. It is derived from various point-of-sale systems from multiple sales channels.
We prepare two “top ten” lists internally. First, we track the Top U.S. Trade Publishers. (Publishers whose books are primarily sold through retail booksellers as opposed to, say, textbook publishers.) We consolidate the various imprints into their parent companies. So, for example, HarperCollins includes William Morrow and Zondervan. Simon & Schuster includes Free Press, Pocket Books, Howard Books, Scribner, etc.
Second, we track the Top U.S. Christian Publishers. In this case, we break out the Christian imprints of the trade publishers and rank them against each other. That’s why Zondervan, for example, is on the second list but not the first list. (Click on the images above to enlarge them. If you want both charts in a PDF, you can click here to download it.)
Nothing has changed in our overall ranking. We are still the #1 Christian book publisher in terms of revenue and the #7 trade book publisher in the U.S. What’s changed since I last published the list?
- Though Random house has retained its #1 position, it has also grown it’s market share by 160 basis points (from 15.9% to 17.5%). Kudos to them.
- Pearson, which includes Penguin among other imprints, has remained at #2. Their market share remained relatively flat, gaining 30 basis points (from 11.0% to 11.3%).
- Hachette has moved up from #5 to #3, no doubt as a result of the success of the Twilight series. As a result, HarperCollins and Simon & Schuster each moved down one spot.
- Thomas Nelson maintained its position at #7, but our market share dropped by 150 basis points. Frankly, the entire Christian category didn’t perform well as evidenced by the fact that we actually gained share in the Christian segment. Tyndale fell off the list completely.
- Scholastic fell from #6 to #8, as a result of the sales decline in the Harry Potter series.
You may be wondering how John Wiley and Scholastic could be smaller than Thomas Nelson. Keep in mind that our ranking only considers trade sales. Both Wiley and Scholastic have large academic, professional and technical publishing programs that aren’t considered trade sales. In addition, Scholastic has a book fair program, whose sales are not included here. We are not in any of those businesses, so we haven’t built any systems to track them.
In terms of the Top Christian Publishers, here’s what has changed:
- While Thomas Nelson retained it’s #1 position, we grew our market share by 330 basis points (from 29.3% to 32.6%). I am very grateful for this. I am also very proud of my team.
- While the top four publishers remained the same, Zondervan and Tyndale both lost market share. Baker remained exactly flat.
- B&H (formerly Broadman & Holman and part of Lifeway) jumped two spots from #7 to #5. No doubt The Love Dare accounted for much of this.
- FaithWords dropped from #7 to #10. Joel Osteen’s first book, Your Best Life Now was a huge seller in the earlier period. It also appears that the sales velocity on Joyce Meyer’s books have slowed in the last 21 months.
All in all, the last two years have been tough. I think the Christian segment in particular has suffered for lack of a blockbuster title to drive people to our category. When you have mega-bestsellers like The Prayer of Jabez, The Left Behind Series, The Purpose Driven Life, and Your Best Life Now, all publishers benefit because it gets people in the stores. We haven’t really seen anything comparable for 18 months.
But publishing is kind of like the weather. Christian publishing especially has gone through a dry spell. But this will eventually change. While I never want to presume on the future, if history is any guide, we are overdue for some rain.
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Did the overall market expand or contract in terms of units sold and revenue?
The overall market contracted.
Based on your answer, my observation on your reports is that the leaders did a great job. They grew their business by taking market share away from the competition, which is not always easy to do. The upside to this is when the market comes back the leaders should see explosive growth, provided they continue to go after market share.
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Michael, a very interesting peek into the publishing industry. I spend a lot of time in bookstores and I shop mainly for personal development books and compelling fiction. Both of the genre's that I enjoy are very prevalent in secular bookstores, but almost non existent in a current Christian Bookstore.
A few weeks ago, I walked into my local Berean store with a 25% off coupon and found very little that interested me. When I walked through the fiction aisle almost all of the books were for Women. In the non fiction section, there was very little in the way of practical books that I could apply to my life. As you said above, there wasn't a current Purpose Driven Life or Your Best Life Now to compel me to buy.
Here is an example…. look at your most popular posts on your blog and then look at the current titles in the front rack at your local Christian bookstore.
There wasn't a book on Twitter for Christians.
There wasn't a book on job skills for Christians even though we have over 10% unemployment.
There wasn't a book on speaking skills.
There wasn't a book on blogging, writing, or reaching out to the world with social media.
Other than Max Lucado, there wasn't a compelling book cover that even peaked my interest.
While there seemed to be lots of fiction for women, I couldn't find one fiction book like the Left Behind Series that looked interesting. Maybe it's just me but I see a lot of opportunity for Christian writers in the coming years. The last book that I bought at a Christian store was Wide Awake, by Erwin McManus, an absolutely life changing work.
When I wrote my first book last year, I patterned it after the popular Og Mandino books from the 70's and early 80's. Those books sold over 50 million copies, yet there isn't anything like them that I have found that has a powerful, uplifting, and practical message in a fiction book for today's audiences. When Christ spoke to his followers, he often used parables. We need some compelling parables in the fiction aisle today.
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John,
I used to work as a book-buyer for two Christian bookstores. I also write professionally. Based on research studies and my own observations, it is safe to say that Christian men, as a whole, are one of the worst book-buying segments. Women, as a whole ( both Christian and non-), buy far more books than men do. On the the Christian side, it is even more lopsided. I read one study a few years ago that showed that nearly 90 percent of all book purchases from Christian bookstores, outside of Bibles, were made by women.
Simply put, Christian men, as a whole, do not read books once they complete their formal educations. It is one of the great scandals in the American Church.
When Christian men do read outside of the Bible, they aren't reading Christian fiction. Authors pitching novels aimed primarily at men get the stone face from Christian publishers. Only the sf/fantasy genre is a tougher sell. It's a Catch-22 cycle: If Christian men don't buy men's fiction, then Christian publishers won't publish it, which means Christian men won't find titles to read, so…
Those rare Christian authors who have been successful selling to men, such as Ted Dekker, have found their greatest success by writing books that are nearly indistinguishable from secular fare. That begs the question of the point of writing fiction for men that maintains strong Christian touchpoints and messages. If the sole determining characteristic of such books is that they omit vulgar language and clinical descriptions of sex acts, then Christian men may be served as well by mainstream authors who make no pretense about Christian faith, such as Harlan Coben in his later works. And that has been the struggle of Christian publishers who attempt to sell fiction to men.
Every comment you made is true, John. But the reason you're not seeing those books is because Christian publishers haven't generated compelling sales figures from them. No money, no reason to publish.
As much as I hate to admit it, you are right. [Sigh]
Michael, it's good this exchange is happening in your blog. I kind of stopped buying Christian books a couple of years ago because most of them are targeted for female readers. I check the bookstores from time to time but the titles don't interest me anymore.
I think it has something to do with my changing preferences. I used to read "soul" books before, those that deal with internal blah blah blah. Maybe I've outgrown them and at my age I need something more practical.
Until now, I'm stuck with my old favorites- Chuck Swindoll, Philip Yancey and Max Lucado, not because I stopped reading but because I couldn't find any more authors like them.
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Michael, it's good this exchange is happening in your blog. I kind of stopped buying Christian books a couple of years ago because most of them are targeted for female readers. I check the bookstores from time to time but the titles don't interest me anymore.
I think it has something to do with my changing preferences. I used to read "soul" books before, those that deal with internal blah blah blah. Maybe I've outgrown them and at my age I need something more practical.
Until now, I'm stuck with my old favorites- Chuck Swindoll, Philip Yancey and Max Lucado, not because I stopped reading but because I couldn't find any more authors like them.
My recent post Red Hot Temptation
This has been a systemic challenge in the Christian market forever, and is not a new argument. However there are novels that can be thoroughly enjoyed by the "Male" reader. It just takes some digging and some market awareness. Let's start today to dispel the myth that Christian fiction is only for women. May I suggest a couple? I think every one of these authors can hold their own against many of the books in the general market. In full disclosure, I am a literary agent, but only represent three of the authors mentioned below (Brown, Holton, and Robertson).
1) Don Brown's THE BLACK SEA AFFAIR (Zondervan) is a great geo-political thriller. His earlier novel TREASON is eerily familiar in that the scenario is of a Muslim who infiltrates a military base and commits a murder.
2) Thomas Nelson publishes Tim Downs whose "Bugman" novels fit the needs of a "male" reader very well. Try FIRST THE DEAD and see for yourself.
3) Each one of Joel Rosenberg's thrillers have been on the NY Times bestseller list. He is published by Tyndale.
4) Noel Hynd is a successful author in the general market who recently began writing for a Christian audience too. See his Russian trilogy with the first being CONSPIRACY IN KIEV (Zondervan).
5) Don't forget Randy Alcorn. DEADLINE is a great place to start.
6) Frank Peretti should not be left out. Even though THIS PRESENT DARKNESS (Crossway) was published 15 years ago, it is still a book that can be recommended without hesitation.
7) Paul Robertson is a new voice in the field. His debut novel THE HEIR (Bethany House) is really marvelous.
8) Read Travis Thrasher's ISOLATION (Faithwords) for a thriller that will keep you awake at night.
9) Chuck Holton has three military thrillers. Start with ALLAH'S FIRE and don't stop until you've finished #3 MELTDOWN (Waterbrook/Multnomah).
10) Take a look at the work of T.L. Hines. His novel UNSEEN (Thomas Nelson) is his most recent story. It has a very creepy premise and is guaranteed to keep you turning the pages.
Excellent list. Thanks for all the detail!
A few more books that men especially might enjoy – The Bowers File Series by Steven James that includes PAWN, KNIGHT, AND ROOK. I believe he won a Christy Award for one or more of these.
I was wondering about the secular market success of series that have 4+ volumes like the Twilight or Harry Potter juggernauts. I see mostly bonnet books on the shelves (Amish/prairie romance) and I know that my teenage daughter is not interested in that type of book. It keeps her out of Christian bookstores and heading to big chains. Is there no large demand for the sweeping epic in the christian youth fiction market?
I am sure that's true, but it's sad because I hear my male Christian friends look for books quite often and come up dry because there's nothing to keep their interest. Do you think it's a marketing thing?
Thanks for these insights. Excellent. In fact, I am going to forward to my publishers and editors.
If you like Og Mandino, you’ll like Andy Andrews. His most recent book, The Noticer is fantastic. (Disclosure: Thomas Nelson publishes Andy.)
Thanks for the tip about Andy Andrews. I'll have to pick up his book. As far as Og Mandino, his books made a huge difference in my life in the early 80's. As an outside salesman, his 10 scrolls from The Greatest Salesman in the World, were my constant companion in every cold call I made. And I'll still never forget the human ragpicker in one of his other works. Powerful! We could certainly use more motivational works like this. As Christians, we have the true source of inspiration and motivation. Thankfully we have a lot of practical content on your blog to help us on our journey
If you want parables in the Christian fiction aisle, you may be interested in "Imaginary Jesus" by Matt Mikalatos, coming from Tyndale in April: http://www.tyndale.com/products/fiction/details.a... do work for Tyndale (so there's my disclosure), but this book truly is unique in the Christian marketplace. It's fiction, but we call it a "not-quite-true" story since the author has written himself into the book and tells his own story of searching for the real Jesus. This book will probably appeal most though to young men in the 18-35 age range.
I have to assume that the economy is affecting the sales also. I typically have a running list of books that I order. Everytime someone suggests a good book, I write it down. Then about every 6 weeks I place an order on Amazon for 3-4 books. I have done this for many many years (at least 6)
Last year I think I placed 1-2 book orders at the most. When you examine your budget and get rid of the "unneccesary extras" books are toward the top of the list. This year I reread some of my books and did more on-line reading. I'm not as quick to purchase as I was…after looking at the library or asking friends if they have the book – and I can't find it anywhere – I will make the purchase.
So I say all of that to say that the economy is probably playing a role in book sales too. :-( So sad.
Courtney
http://www.womenlivingwell-courtney.blogspot.com
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No question that the economy is having an adverse impact. We see it in traffic at retail and overall consumer confidence.
My question would be how does this work with the number of titles being released by each publisher, or does that even formulate into the equation?
As a complete hypothetical – Did Random House release more books than Pearson, thus giving them an "edge" over the market share?
No, that doesn’t factor into the equation. This is strictly revenue dollars. Unfortunately, we are not privy to how many titles each publisher is releasing. In fact, I wouldn't even begin to know how to get my hands on that information. I don’t think any of us report it externally.
Roughly extrapolating from the statistics above, it seems that the Christian market is only 10% of the overall trade sales. That's small given the Christian base that's out there. Like J. Richardson said, why is so much of the Christian market women oriented? It seems to me that Fiction is a HUGE piece of the market (particularly if it can cause Scholastic to drop two ranks as a result of the decrease in Harry Potter sales). However, of the four big sellers in the Christian market that you listed three of them are self-help/devotional (granted the last is a series). If you ask people on the street who their favorite authors are, what are they going to say? Most will list fiction authors. It seems to me that the Christian market needs a few more prominent writers in the fiction arena (and not written for women), like Frank Peretti and Ted Dekker. I think Thomas Nelson has a good philosophy in that it publishes authors with a Christian world view, even if the book isn't overly christian (like the Left Behind series was). I would think you need to capitalize on this and push more into the fiction market.
Warning: this comment will be controversial. I think the Christian book market is female-oriented precisely because the evangelical church has been largely feminized. I am not the first person to say this. Leon Podles argues this in The Church Impotent, as does David Murrow in Why Men Hate Going to Church. Until we change that, we will not change consumer behavior with regard to books.
I totally agree. Even I don't like going to church because it's feminized…but in a really weird way, because women are generally not "allowed" to be leaders. My pastor is basically a male figurehead of a leader while his wife bosses everyone around.
Could you expound a bit more on what you mean by the Church being feminized?
I would suggest that you read one of the books I referenced above. I’m not an expert. My observation was only anecdotal.
I fully agree. I'm a huge David Murrow fan.
In my original draft of the comment (before I had to edit it for length) I referenced 'No more Christian Nice Guy.' I agree that the Church is female oriented, although there are organizations trying to re-engage men (for example http://www.godmen.org – and no I'm not affiliated with them … other than following them on facebook) . I worked at a Christian Radio station and everything (preaching and music) was geared for 35 year old women (after all that's who's home listening during the day). Does fiction have to be also? Does 'if you build it they will come' exist in the publishing industry?
Regarding the Hachette ranking. Did the data include the sales of THE SHACK? Technically it is distributed by FaithWords, a division of Hachette, and published by Windblown Media. Just curious
I am not sure. I will check and get back to you. Thanks.
What would you say were the top three things that contributed to Thomas Nelson being able to grow its market share so much among Christian publishers?
On your summary, I thought it interesting that The Shack was not considered a blockbuster (or perhaps its sales are not included here for some reason). Anyway, looking at the titles that you pointed out, it seems that Christian publishing and retailing is looking for that fresh new thing that will bring non-Christians into the stores. A big crossover item. Sans that, the sales are less than desirable.
Since that next big blockbuster is hard to pinpoint, and certainly difficult to plan for, what are Christian publishers doing to grow their market by way of increased sales to existing customers, or at least by expanding their share of the perceived existing base, i.e. Christian consumers?
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With regard to our market share, I would say the three things that contributed most to its growth are:
I should have listed The Shack. It has certainly been a mega-bestseller. Unfortunately, it was primarily merchandised in the fiction section of most general market bookstores. As a result, it still didn’t dive traffic to the Christian or Religion category.
With regard to your last question, probably every publisher has a different strategy and it is somewhat proprietary. Certainly, we are aware of the issue and working hard to change the outcome.
Congrats, Michael!
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Will Westbow figures be included in the years to come?
They may be more difficult to measure and define but market share among self-pubs and sales of self-pub books may be possible to find metrics for.
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Since this is based on point-of-sale data at retail, only if the WestBow titles are sold through retail. Regardless, they will not be included in the Thomas Nelson market share.
I too would be interested to see how many books each of these publishing houses released last year.
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Me, too. It would enable us to perform some very interesting analysis, like average-sales-per-unit, etc. I just don't know of a way to get to this information.
First, great work by TN and your staff. Though I only interact with you all via Twitter and Blogs, it doesn't seem surprising that you all would be performing well.
Random thought – I would think that, given the economic issues going on, there would be an increased turn to (a) books in general and (b) Christian books in particular. I say this for two reasons. Number one, I view the economy as yet another example of how worship of/faith in money/job/401(k)/status leads to temporary satisfaction, compared to faith in the Cross. This presents an opportunity to grab some new audiences that are searching for answers/comfort outside of what has previously "worked" for them. A down economy also presents an opportunity for people to buy more books than they normally would because they are generally staying in (prime opportunity to read more as a hobby/activity) and books are cheaper than going out to dinner and the movies – offering a cheaper alternative when money is tight. Personally, I bought more books than ever in 2009 (and received a good number of free books from you – thanks again) as I spent more time at home rather than on the golf course, eating out, etc. Just an observation. Again, great work by you and your team. We could all learn something from the wisdom you share.
I'm praying that somewhere, somehow the next blockbuster will focus on the power of God's love–if the world needs anything, it needs to understand that God's love is greater than any evil coming against us. We have not begun to fathom what God's love can accomplish!
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Has Nav Press ever ranked in the Christian Publishers list or is it too small?
Also I have read some of the best Christian books I have read in a while this past year…Hole in the Gospel, Chasing Francis, A Million Miles, etc. I wish those books would reach a broader audience.
We always rank NavPress, but I don’t recall it ever making the top 10. They distribute primarily direct-to-consumer and direct-to-church, so they are moving less through retail. These numbers reflect point-of-sale at retail.
A Million Miles did spend several weeks on the the New York Times bestseller list.
I have no expertise in this industry; I'm just a book-lover. Speaking from this perspective, I have to say that Thomas Nelson's willingness to reach readers through social media makes the company seem more friendly and accessible. Therefore I am more likely to buy a book published by Thomas Nelson simply because it feels like a friend has recommended it. Because people in the company blog and tweet regularly, and it is authentic – It doesn't sound like a marketing director put it together, I as a reader feel a personal connection and have a certain level of trust in the product.
The Book Review Blogger Program (I guess I should say Booksneeze) is also the easiest to use. Some other companies offer this, but it is not easy to find and navigate. I'm sure that makes a difference as well.
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Great info. Thanks. The question that comes to mind when looking at these %, share graphs is a question of the overall health of publishing in 2009 compared to the previous year 2008. I know your point was to show market share in Trade and Christian but if you used revenue as your ranker… are you able to share a 30,000 ft view of the revenue? Not actual $’s but was there an increase or decrease in Trade revenue overall, same for Christian. Just curious.
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Overall, the book publishing market was up 1.9%. I'd say that is modest but better than I anticipated. The General Market publishers were actually up 3.3%. Christian publishers, sadly, were down 14.5%. I blogged about this last spring, because it was a similar story: “Why Religious Book Sales are Down.” We were down at Thomas Nelson, too, but much less than all our major competitors.
I'm really surprised that David C Cook didn't make the Top Ten Christian publishers. With the strength of Crazy Love and Forgotten God, how can they not be here?
It takes more than a single book doing well to make the list.
I LOVE YOUR BLOG! I’m a bookstore haunt and an Christian YA writer. I’m constantly shaking my head at the lack of YA Christian books out there. The YA section at Christian bookstores is a disgrace and at the larger book sellers the Christian YA fiction is either shelved with mainstream YA or crammed onto the standard Religious Fiction shelves. As a youth pastor and a YA fiction writer, I would love to see the Christian world embrace this genre, sink some money into it, and give it a chance. Has that been attempted?
Without question, lets add more to the list! I was trying to limit my list above.
So let's add a few more authors…
Steven James
James Scott Bell
Randy Singer
Sigmund Brouwer
Jack Cavanaugh
Al Gansky
John Olson
Jeff Streuker
Robert Liparulo
Eric Wilson
Robert Parrish
Athol Dickson
Jeanette Windle
Ronie Kendig
Karen Hancock
Michael Snyder
Seriously! There are plenty of options. Anyone who claims otherwise either is limiting their search to their local Christian bookstore (which puts the selection process in the hands of someone else) or has not cast their net very widely. Consider going to http://www.christianbook.com/Christian/Books/cata... and receive their quarterly Christian Fiction catalog. You will be astounded by the options for your reading tastes.
Steve Laube
The Steve Laube Agency
I don't think we know until (a) someone writes one and (b) someone publishes it. I don't think the authors of the other sweeping epics set out to do what they did. They just hit a nerve and kept going.
Yeah, maybe it's because our local bookstores don't have them. Maybe it's easier to get copies in America. Not in Asia though.
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Thank you for the list, Steve. I did a little research over the weekend and visited the bookstore at our church. I found fiction by Dekker, Rosenberg, and Alcorn along with a devotional style book by Liparulo. I also asked a librarian friend of mine to take a look at your authors list. None of the names were recognizable to her.
Here is my take. Authors writing for a Christian audience really need to do some research on their male clients. What things interest them? What kind of books are they currently reading? What problems are they facing?
I think Michael has a brilliant strategy using social media to connect with customers. Every author above should have a blog and actively ask questions and solicit comments. If the Christian bookstores aren't carrying their books, they need to look at different marketing avenues.
Why not books about…
Football
Baseball
Golf
Racing
Computers
Photography
Social Media
Last time I looked, God was working in the lives of many sports players, race car drivers, and computer programmers. Whether fiction or practical living, these subject areas might be a great place to start.
Bottom line, I'm a guy and I buy a lot of books. Unfortunately I haven't found much of interest at my local Christian bookstore.
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