Let’s Not Talk Ourselves into a Recession

Spot on. I had a CEO who would never tire of telling me – If you are a race car driver and you focus on the wall, telling yourself “dont hit the wall, dont hit the wall” – You will hit it.

Perhaps we just need more people chatting at your party and fewer people watching CNN, MSNBC, FOX and all.

I’m not sure if markets are efficient or inefficient. But there is some timely wisdom from John Maynard Keynes who said, “Markets can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent.”

I stopped watching the news altogether. It’s going to be bad all the time. I don’t believe that the news on television or in the newspaper is indicative of how things are really going in the world. What I see around me is this: people joining health clubs, spending time on blogs and taking more vacations. This says to me that more people have and utilize disposable income and time. That doesn’t jive with an economy that is heading for a recession.

Oh Mike…your blog today was wonderful. I can tell you (after 30 years experience with Mobil Oil) that one of the primary reasons that Corporation came out on top financially (no matter how bad the market)was because of its optimistic, contageous leadership. I thank God you have that uncanny ability to see the bright side when the picture looks dark. It’s refreshing to work for a person with that kind of spirit. Thank you!

Like Michael E, I don’t pay any attention to the news either. I find that the mainstream media is a business with stockholders to keep happy, and stories are often chosen based on revenue rather than informational value. I also think that most of the news organs are totally out of touch with the public, and I resent that so I ignore them. Sometimes the news has no clue.

I’ve read Amusing Ourselves to Death by Neil Postman. It is a great book. I’ll have to get the other one. Thanks.

Mike,
You are on the money, Mike. You hit the issue on the nose. The recession is not the problem. It is the perception of the recession is the problem. Pessimism is destructive.

Two years ago, I made a conscious decision to protect my heart, mind, and ears from pessimistic exposures. First, I reduced the time watching TV news. Then, I made a consicous effort to influence my friends to see things on the bright side of life. I made my friends aware when they share a challenge, I guide them to share two solutions after their discourse.

If my friends are just spewing out problems, I stopped them in the middle of a the sentence. At first, the situation was uncomfortable. Now, this is the routine to share noble ideas to each other.

Whatever the state of the economy, opportunities abound. Our optimistic perception can unearth gems in gloomy situations.

Mike, thank you for sharing your thoughts and life. Have a MERRY CHRISTMAS and a blockbuster 2008 with you, your family, and Thomas Nelson Publishers. God bless.

Herman Villanueva
Honolulu, Hawaii

The fact so many responded to your post with such enthusiasm seems to be a real desire to focus on the positive at this time of year. Without intending to be high brow or Belle-Meadeish if you know what I mean, truth is most of us that you know, who you associate with, Christmas party with, and who read this blog are blessed at an extra level and don’t have inconveniences of higher gas prices affecting Christmas purchases. We risk seeing past the pain those hundreds of millions in loan write offs from Citigroup, BoaA, and Countrywide have endured. Even Suntrust, a very well run outfit,said yesterday they have some big write offs. Dumb business decisions? Yeah. But when Macy’s, Target, J Crew, Walmart and others are sending back reports of same store sales concerns this month that’s reality which may not mix well with happy folk talk at Christmas parties.
Folks tired of bad news doesn’t make some facts go away and cancelling the paper seems more like putting ones head in the sand rather than listening attentivity. Instead of the Tennessean read WSJ. Between your blog and my response perhaps somewhere is the truth. Maybe it’s not as bad as the news presents but it could be better. It’s niave for some to a broad brush stoke to all media as the boogie man. That would be as irresponsible as my saying “all of these Christian books look like one another.” Company losses, slower home sales, flat retail is a fact not a story, but I’m glad we’re blessed to not have to endure what some are this Christmas. Me? I’m taking my family to Disneyworld. Give everybody at TNP a nice bonus and keep this economy stirred up, ok?

Good note on what the devaluation of the dollar actually means for Americans at home. Our goods are more competitive on the world market because of it. That means that more capital will come into our market, making us more wealthy (at least some of us…). This is the way everything works, you have to have friction and tension or nothing can happen, if nothing happens entropy takes over and everything falls apart. It would be wise for Americans to step back and look at what history has to teach us. Rome didn’t fall because its adversaries were strong, but because its unity was weak. America became such a dominate economic force because Europe became complacent (and started fighting each other). China is growing because they are determined to grow. India is winning markets from western countries because it is more competitive and wants the jobs more. If all we are determined to do is maintain the status quo, we will worry and underachieve ourselves into the position Europe found itself in 50 years ago.

We refer to creating buzz as part of promotion, recognizing that what we talk about gets people’s attention and (hopefully) will affect their behavior. Why should it be any different if the news media decides now is the time to talk down the economy?

I find it curious that they chose to tell us how bad Christmas retail sales would be before Christmas shopping had ended.

There ought to be a good conspiracy theory novel in that for someone to write!

Becky

Mr. Hyatt, you said something I’ve been saying for years.
Although I consider myself a part of the media, I have to point the finger of blame to the industry for many of the economic downturns we’ve witnessed over the years.
All consumers need to hear is “possible recession” and though there is no real evidence, and there is enough balance elsewhere in the economy to counter whatever industry(ies) are failing at that given moment, people start looking around with the deer-in-the-headlight gaze and think to themselves, “Uh-oh, we’re in trouble” and stop buying anything other than the absolute necessaities. Multiply that by 100 million or so and the media has talked us right into a recession.
Same with the Christmas shopping season. Some wanna-be junior journalist at one of the major news companies, looking to make a name for himself, decides to report that, based on a cash-register conversation with a local 7-11 proprietor, “this holiday shopping season may not be so merry after all.” The “news” spreads, and consumers decide en masse to cut back on the gift list this year. Voila! Bad shopping season.
Unfortunately, bad news still sells more papers than does good news.

i am hoping that the global economy would recover from this economic recession. life has been very hard with these massive job cuts.

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