Four Reasons Why the Sales Growth of e-Books Will Be Slower Than Industry Executives Think

Last week I attended Digital Book World in New York. More than 1,300 industry professionals showed up, doubling last year’s attendance. It’s clear that digital represents the fastest growing segment of the book industry, but will it grow as fast as industry executives think?

A Businessman Trying to Read a Crystal Ball - Photo courtesy of ©iStockphoto.com/VallarieE, Image #12041842

Photo courtesy of ©iStockphoto.com/VallarieE

Forrester Research presented a fascinating study, based on a survey of book publishing executives. One conclusion was that “by 2014, [publishing] executives predicted that half of units sold will be e-books, although it was not clear at what price e-books will be sold.”

Six e-Book Trends to Watch in 2011

Because I am the CEO of a book publishing company, I am regularly asked how I see the future of digital publishing. As Yogi Berra said, “It’s tough to make predictions, especially about the future.”

A Woman Reading an e-Book

I don’t know exactly how things will shake out long-term, but I believe we will see the following six trends in 2011:

Why the iPad Couldn’t Kill the Kindle

When Apple launched the iPad last spring, most everyone assumed it would kill the Kindle. After all, the iPad had a multi-touch screen, a crisp, color display, the ability to view books, photos, and movies, and run thousands of applications.

A Man Throwing a Punch - Photo courtesy of ©iStockphoto.com/peepo, Image #3303079

Photo courtesy of ©iStockphoto.com/peepo

For Amazon, this seemed like the classic David vs. Goliath scenario—the single-purpose, underpowered Kindle against, the multi-purpose, powerful iPad.

13 eBooks to Put On Your Brand New Kindle

By some estimates, more than one million Amazon Kindles were given as gifts today. I got a new Amazon Kindle 3 a few months ago and love it. (I unbox it here, chronicle my experience after a month here, and compare it to other e-readers here.)

Kindle for Christmas - Photo courtesy of ©iStockphoto.com/spxChrome, Image #14256833

Photo courtesy of ©iStockphoto.com/spxChrome

But now, what do you put on it? So many books, so little time. Seth Godin created a terrific little Squidoo page with his list of favorite books. I thought I would offer a “baker’s dozen” of my favorites here. These are in alphabetical order:

Why Do eBooks Cost So Much? (A Publisher’s Perspective)

At least once or twice a week someone asks me, “So why do eBooks cost so much?” This is a fair question. After all, digital publishing eliminates the costs of physical manufacturing and distribution. What expenses do publishers have left?

3D Rendering of the Word “eBook” Using Conventional Type - Photo courtesy of ©iStockphoto.com/Franck-Boston, Image #12661284

As it turns out, plenty.

The Amazon Kindle 3 After Almost a Month

Almost a month ago, I video-taped the unboxing of my new Amazon Kindle 3 and posted it here on my blog. I shared my initial impressions. However, after using it for almost a month, I wanted to share my thoughts here in a little more depth.

Amazon Kindle 3 in a Hand

I should start by saying a few words about the iPad. I have pretty much set it aside. Why? Two reasons.

The Kindle, Nook, iPad, and Reader Compared

Because I am in the publishing industry, and because I have written extensively on the topic of digital publishing, I get asked several times a week, what e-reader I recommend. Frankly, I’m probably not the best person to ask. I experiment with all kinds of technology and am very fickle. I am always trying something new.

So, rather than simply offer an opinion, I spent Saturday morning creating a spreadsheet that compared the four major e-reader brands, representing a total of ten models. I included the Amazon Kindle, Barnes & Noble Nook, Sony Reader, and the Apple iPad. (You can download the actual spreadsheet here or the PDF.)

Unboxing the New Amazon Kindle 3

Yesterday, I received my Kindle 3. It was all I could do to keep from opening the box. However, I wanted to share the “unboxing experience” with you, so I waited until I got home so Gail, my wife, could video tape the whole thing. (I did the same thing with Kindle 2.)

This is now the third Kindle I have bought. You’d think Amazon would send these free (hint, hint) to major publishers, but they don’t. The good news is that my Kindle library migrates effortlessly from device to device. In fact, I can even read my Kindle books on my iPhone, my iPad, and my Mac.

Why Most Authors Should Not Emulate Seth Godin

Seth Godin is one of my heroes. I have read nearly all his books. I subscribe to his blog. I am a fan. I also consider him a visionary and a friend.

iStock_000012054019Small-cropped.png

Yesterday, he wrote a very provocative post on why he is “Moving On” from the traditional world of book publishing in order to connect directly with his readers. This has created a stir on the Internet.

For example, Mike Shatzkin said, “There’s only one Seth Godin, but there are other authors who might emulate him.” Tim Ferriss, author of The 4-Hour Work Week, also commented, as did the Wall Street Journal. Several of my readers have asked for my thoughts about Seth’s decision, so I thought I would respond here.

In Defense of Books

Over the past few months, I have been doing a lot of thinking about reading—particularly about reading books. This was brought to my attention again last week when I interviewed Dr. Ben Carson for a series of video broadcasts on the topic of leadership, which I did for the Chick-fil-A Leadercast.

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